Can the Pirates Turn Things Around with Paul Skenes and Konnor Griffin? History Says It's Hard to Stay at the Bottom
Image credit: DENVER, CO - AUGUST 2: Starting pitcher Paul Skenes #30 of the Pittsburgh Pirates smiles as he walks off the field in the fourth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on August 2, 2025 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
Editor’s Note: The story has been updated to correct who the Pirates' third 5+ WAR player was in 2015. We apologize for the error.
Pirates fans have earned the right to be skeptical. Since Barry Bonds left in free agency after the 1992 season, the team has endured just four winning seasons in 33 years. Pittsburgh's winning percentage since Bonds' departure is a mere .449, and they've managed just three playoff wins in that same period. It's no wonder hope is a scarce commodity for Pirates supporters.
But what if Paul Skenes and Konnor Griffin are the catalysts for change? If Skenes stays healthy and isn't traded, and Griffin lives up to the potential Baseball America and the baseball world see in him, it might be time for Pirates fans to start dreaming again.
The idea that two big league stars could make a team truly difficult to beat might seem far-fetched, but recent history suggests it's not impossible. Recent history also shows that it's incredibly challenging to remain a consistently bad team when you have two exceptional players.
Let's take a closer look at the Pirates' other assets. Bubba Chandler is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, expected to join the Pirates' rotation in 2026. Jared Jones, Braxton Ashcraft, and Hunter Barco are other young, promising arms who have already reached the majors. Meanwhile, Seth Hernandez and Edward Florentino are rising stars in the minors.
Even if not all these prospects pan out, as long as Skenes continues his dominance and Griffin becomes the star Baseball America predicts, the Pirates could soon have one of their best teams in decades.
Here's the thing: it's hard to be a truly bad team with two or more exceptional players. Using 5+ WAR as a benchmark for stardom, Skenes delivered 6.5 fWAR in 2025. Among shortstops, Bobby Witt Jr., Geraldo Perdomo, Francisco Lindor, and Jeremy Peña all topped 5+ WAR in 2025.
While it might seem bold to project Griffin to that level, history suggests it's a realistic expectation. Among Baseball America's top prospects from 2010 to 2023, nine out of 12 have achieved 5+ WAR seasons. The only exceptions are Wander Franco (4.8 fWAR at age 22 before legal issues), Jurickson Profar (4.3), and Andrew Benintendi (4.4). Other stars like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ronald Acuña, Corey Seager, Kris Bryant, Byron Buxton, Bryce Harper, and Jason Heyward have all reached that mark.
The same can be said for the game's No. 2 prospects. Only three—Luis Robert, Dylan Bundy, and Matt Moore—have yet to reach 5+ WAR in a season. This group includes Corbin Carroll, Julio Rodriguez, Fernando Tatis Jr., Shohei Ohtani, Xander Bogaerts, Mike Trout, and Stephen Strasburg.
When teams have two stars producing at that level, they almost always win. Of the 114 teams with two 5+ WAR players in the past 15 seasons:
- Only 14% finished below .500
- 59% won 90+ games
- 15% won 100+ games
- 62% reached the postseason
On average, those teams won 90 games. And of the 16 teams with losing records, 10 made the playoffs the year before or after.
Even with those two-star teams with losing records, it often signaled a team on the rise or a last hurrah for a previously successful team. The 2014 Cubs won 73 games but made the playoffs the next four seasons and won the World Series in 2016. The 2019 White Sox, with 72 wins, made the playoffs in 2020 and 2021. The 2016 Rockies won 75 games, but the 2017 and 2018 Rockies made the playoffs.
The Pirates have had two 5+ fWAR players in the same season only three times in the past 15 full seasons (excluding the shortened 2020 season). They achieved this in 2013 (Andrew McCutchen and Russell Martin), 2014 (McCutchen and Martin), and 2015 (McCutchen, Francisco Cervelli, and Gerrit Cole).
Not coincidentally, those were Pittsburgh's three best seasons since Bonds' departure. The Pirates won 94 games in 2013, 88 in 2014, and 98 in 2015.
That 98-win team matched the 1991 NLCS team and the 1979 "We Are Family" world champions for the franchise's best record since 1972. If the Pirates had any luck, that 2015 season would have been legendary.
But here's the catch: that 98-win season came in a year when three NL Central teams won 97 or more games. The Cardinals, with 100 wins, took the division title, while the Pirates were eliminated by the 97-win Cubs in the wild card game.
From 2006 to the present, 98 wins would have secured the NL Central in every season but 2015 and 2016. Pittsburgh's best team in decades peaked at the worst possible moment.
The 2015 club is another example of how it's impossible to be consistently bad with three productive stars. Since 2010, none of the 41 teams with three or more 5+ WAR players have finished with a losing record. These teams averaged 95 wins, and 33 of them (80%) made the playoffs.
So, for the rare optimistic Pirates fan, here's the blueprint for dreaming. It's realistic that Griffin will have 5+ WAR seasons in his future. If Skenes stays healthy, he's already there. And if another standout joins them, whether it's Chandler, Florentino, or a surprise, Pittsburgh could become a power.
The challenge will be syncing those seasons. An injury to Skenes or a slower development path for Griffin could turn this into a "what if" rather than a team turnaround. The Angels are a cautionary tale. They had Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani together for years but rarely won.
Trout has more 5+ WAR seasons since 2010 (nine) than any other player, but has done it just once since 2020. Ohtani's first star season was in 2021. Just as Ohtani was becoming a game-changer, Trout was struggling with health issues. The 2022 Angels team won 73 games, one of the worst performances by a team with two productive stars in the past 15 years.
There are plenty of reasons and historical precedents to keep Pirates fans cautious about the future. However, the reality is that a combination of Griffin, Skenes, and other young, promising players should fuel a turnaround in the coming years.
